Top-ranked American player Madison Keys prepares for her opening match at the Mutua Madrid Open. The fifth seed is set to face Italy's Lucia Bronzetti in the Round of 64 on Thursday, April 24, 2025.
Keys enters the clay court tournament after recent appearances in Miami and Charleston. She holds a strong record on clay over the past year, winning 14 of 18 matches and securing one title on the surface. Her service and return game statistics on clay underscore her capabilities.
Lucia Bronzetti, ranked No. 59, reached the second round after a victory over Naomi Osaka. Bronzetti's recent form on clay includes a 4-8 record over the last 12 months. Her win percentages on service and return games on clay indicate her challenge against higher-ranked opponents.
Thursday's contest marks the third meeting between the two players. Madison Keys currently leads the head-to-head record two matches to none. Keys won their previous encounters in straight sets at the 2023 United Cup and the 2025 Auckland tournament.
Forecasting models strongly favor Keys for the upcoming match. Based on simulations, Keys holds a significant win probability. One model gives the American an 80% chance of winning, while another sets her chances slightly higher at 81.8% based on current betting lines.
Sportsbooks reflect this expectation, listing Keys as a clear favorite. Her moneyline odds sit around -450 or -455, compared to Bronzetti's odds around +320 or +333. Keys is also favored to win the first set.
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The winner of this match will advance to the Round of 32. A potential third-round opponent for the victor could be Anna Kalinskaya. Keys aims to join Serena Williams as the only American woman to capture the WTA-1000 title in Madrid.
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"Using the latest data, we simulated Thursday's Keys-Bronzetti match 10,000 times," said data analyst Greg Butyn. "Taking into account recent updates and various additional inputs, we forecast Madison Keys with a win probability of 80% and Lucia Bronzetti with 20%."
