Recent tensions have flared between India and Pakistan following recent events, prompting renewed attention to a 2019 research paper. That study predicted a potential nuclear conflict between the two nations could erupt specifically in the year 2025, triggered by a high-casualty terror attack.
The academic report, published in Science Advances and also referenced by Routledge, was a collaborative effort led by researchers from the University of Colorado and Rutgers University. It gathered data from organizations including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Federation of American Scientists, and Natural Resources Defense Council.
The study theorized a scenario where a significant terrorist incident, initially envisioned as an assault on India’s Parliament, would provoke India to mobilize troops along the Line of Control (LOC). This action would lead Pakistan to respond by positioning its own forces.
According to the study’s simulations, escalating tensions would result in skirmishes and casualties on both sides. Facing a potential conventional defeat, Pakistan's generals would resort to using nuclear weapons to counter advancing Indian forces.
The predicted conflict progression included Pakistan initially deploying tactical nuclear weapons within its borders. India would then respond with strategic nuclear airbursts targeting Pakistani military installations. The study warned this exchange would trigger an uncontrollable escalation.
Subsequent days could see Pakistan using its strategic arsenal against Indian cities, naval bases, and airfields. India would retaliate with nuclear strikes on Pakistani urban military sites, retaining some weapons in reserve. The study projected Pakistan using its entire strategic stockpile and India deploying a significant portion of its own.
The consequences predicted were catastrophic, far exceeding the immediate conflict zone. Researchers estimated direct fatalities between 50 and 125 million depending on weapon yield, with cities in both countries destroyed.
Beyond the immediate devastation, the study detailed severe global impacts. Nuclear explosions would ignite firestorms releasing vast amounts of soot and black carbon into the atmosphere. This soot would obscure sunlight, reducing global temperatures by as much as 5 degrees Celsius and causing significant disruptions to agriculture worldwide.
A predicted decrease in global precipitation by up to 30 percent would worsen food shortages, leading to potential mass famine affecting billions globally. The climatic effects could persist for at least a decade. The report highlighted the need for international agreements like the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons to prevent such an outcome.
Alan Robock, an author from Rutgers University’s Department of Environmental Sciences, commented on the study’s findings. "A war like that would threaten not just the areas where bombs would be dropped but the whole world," Robock said.
