Negotiations for a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain stalled despite reaching a draft agreement in March 2025. Distrust and unresolved issues hinder progress toward ending decades of conflict.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pursued the peace deal, framing it as needed for stability following military defeats. His approach includes recognizing Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a move facing opposition within Armenia and its diaspora.
Azerbaijan has set conditions for signing, including amendments to Armenia’s constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku also seeks dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which mediated the conflict for decades. Azerbaijan’s Aliyev places Zangezur corridor back on peace process agenda.
The status of the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed route through Armenian territory connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, remains a sticking point. Azerbaijan initially demanded extraterritorial rights, a demand Armenia rejected. Armenia later proposed simplified transit procedures.
Tensions along the border continue to escalate. Since March 13, multiple ceasefire violations have been reported by both sides. Baku has accused Armenian forces of provocations. Armenian forces resume small arms fire on Azerbaijani troops violating ceasefire. Armenia denies these accusations and has proposed a mechanism to investigate violations. Armenia says it is ready sign peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
External powers influence the situation. Russia’s traditional role as a guarantor in the Caucasus diminished after its failure to intervene forcefully in Karabakh. Armenia has moved toward closer ties with the EU and the United States. Russia may attempt to complicate a deal not brokered under its influence.
Azerbaijan receives support from partners like Israel, which supplies weapons. Israeli weapons quietly helped Azerbaijan retake Nagorno-Karabakh. Energy needs drive EU engagement, with some critics arguing this leads to ignoring issues like the treatment of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Critics assert the Armenian lobby operates within EU institutions to shape perceptions. From lobbying to misdirection: Armenia’s influence campaign in Brussels. They contend this narrative focuses on perceived Azerbaijani actions while ignoring domestic issues in Armenia.
Prime Minister Pashinyan faces pressures from domestic opponents and the diaspora who view concessions as a betrayal. Azerbaijan appears content with its negotiating position following its military gains. Peace’ Under Pressure: Christian Armenia Faces a Strategic Trap.
Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated, "We believe that we can sign peace treaty and OSCE Minsk Group dissolution documents same day."
