Severe storms and flooding across the central Mississippi Valley in early April were made more likely and more intense due to human-caused climate change, according to a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group. The four-day rainfall event caused death and destruction across eight states.
Analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that climate change, driven by burning fossil fuels, made the record rainfall about 9% more intense and 40% more likely. Warmer ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico fed moisture into the storms; researchers determined these conditions were 14 times more likely in today's climate compared with a cooler, pre-industrial world.
The storms killed at least 24 people, with 15 deaths attributed to flooding. The event caused widespread catastrophic flooding, inundating crops, damaging homes, and disrupting power for hundreds of thousands of households. Economic damages have been estimated between $80 billion and $90 billion.
The National Weather Service (NWS) issued 728 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings, the third-highest number on record, which helped local authorities issue timely evacuations and position emergency resources. Despite these efforts saving lives, the study authors noted concerns about ongoing staffing shortages at the NWS.
Nearly half of National Weather Service (NWS) offices reportedly have vacancy rates exceeding 20%, double the rate of a decade ago. Reports indicate 30 offices are operating without a chief meteorologist amid mass layoffs and buyouts.
Looking ahead, the study found that if the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources continues at its current pace, four-day rainfall events like those seen in April could become twice as likely and 7% more intense by 2100.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) is a coalition of climate scientists providing rapid analysis of extreme weather events. This analysis marks the group's 101st study.
Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, commented on the NWS staffing situation. "These floods didn’t make front pages, but they should have," Otto said. "In an increasingly dangerous world of extreme weather, a well-resourced forecasting workforce is essential. The recent layoffs at the National Weather Service workers will put lives at risk."