Measles outbreaks are increasing across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, though the rate of new infections appears to be slowing in West Texas, which was a major epicenter. Health officials attribute the rise primarily to declining vaccination rates below levels required for community protection.
As of this week, the United States recorded 935 measles cases across 30 states, according to one tally, while another count reports 987 cases nationwide, marking the largest number since a 2019 outbreak. Texas alone accounts for 702 confirmed cases, with 91 hospitalizations reported statewide since January.
While cases continue to tick up slightly in Texas, local health officials in Lubbock express cautious optimism that the virus is running out of vulnerable individuals to infect in the immediate area. For the second consecutive week, no children in West Texas are hospitalized with the virus. Dr. Lara Johnson, a pediatrician at Covenant Children’s Hospital in Lubbock, noted that outbreaks can diminish as susceptible people gain immunity either through illness or vaccination. Doctors there have seen a slight increase in people seeking vaccination.
However, the spread extends beyond Texas. States like New Mexico have reported 67 cases, including one death, with 57 linked to the Texas outbreak. Kansas reported 46 cases, and Oklahoma has seen 17 infections tied to the situation in Texas. New cases are also emerging in states like Montana, North Dakota, Illinois, and Missouri.
Across the border, Canada is experiencing its most widespread measles outbreak in over 25 years, with more than 1,000 cases reported in Ontario since late 2024. Mexico's northern state of Chihuahua has seen 786 cases this year, a sharp increase from just seven cases in the country last year, including one death. Officials confirmed the outbreaks in Canada and Mexico link back to travel between communities, including Mennonite groups with lower vaccination rates.
The primary driver of this resurgence across the three countries is a drop in vaccination coverage below the estimated 95% needed for measles herd immunity. Public health agencies point to growing vaccine hesitancy fueled by misinformation as the main cause for these declining rates, leading to clusters of unvaccinated people vulnerable to infection.
This trend is exacerbated by policy choices and rhetoric that public health experts warn undermine vaccine confidence and preparedness. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s appointment as US Secretary of Health and Human Services has drawn concern from some health experts due to his history of vaccine skepticism, promotion of unproven alternative treatments for measles like vitamin A and cod liver oil, and perceived actions like cutting budgets for agencies like the CDC.
Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000 following widespread vaccination efforts. The current outbreaks highlight how quickly the highly contagious virus can return and spread when vaccination rates fall, endangering those who cannot be vaccinated, such as infants and individuals with compromised immune systems. The MMR vaccine, given in two doses, provides about 97% protection.
Despite the hopeful signs of slowing in West Texas, health officials remain vigilant. "I don't think it's over, but I do think it is beginning to taper a little bit now," Dr. Johnson said. "That could change tomorrow."
